Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 2.218333 2.338664 2.468590 2.620582 2.795239 2.991905 3.233498
2025-10-12 2.140820 2.298116 2.475394 2.693460 2.959776 3.282336 3.716646
2025-10-19 2.051731 2.225714 2.426837 2.682034 3.006275 3.419318 4.015111
2025-10-26 1.992969 2.179584 2.399645 2.685951 3.061962 3.562623 4.332961
2025-11-02 1.919100 2.108566 2.334571 2.632985 3.032829 3.580203 4.459149
2025-11-09 1.872605 2.066858 2.301214 2.615259 3.044747 3.650080 4.668697
2025-11-16 1.834546 2.032657 2.273984 2.601523 3.057602 3.717567 4.878364
2025-11-23 1.799425 1.999889 2.245984 2.583481 3.060472 3.766257 5.057027
2025-11-30 1.783515 1.989782 2.245461 2.600723 3.112493 3.892250 5.396844
2025-12-07 1.730411 1.930793 2.179262 2.524663 3.022566 3.781996 5.250279
2025-12-14 1.703915 1.904601 2.154571 2.504210 3.012843 3.799830 5.363512
2025-12-21 1.673227 1.872084 2.120379 2.468841 2.978291 3.772795 5.375884
2025-12-28 1.675675 1.882501 2.143463 2.515057 3.070352 3.967614 5.913151
2026-01-04 1.686623 1.903638 2.180764 2.582103 3.197708 4.237067 6.719389
2026-01-11 1.668497 1.886246 2.165484 2.572320 3.202273 4.283372 6.966442
2026-01-18 1.656831 1.876782 2.160306 2.576457 3.228453 4.370798 7.353647
2026-01-25 1.626909 1.842675 2.120720 2.528652 3.167328 4.284959 7.194270
2026-02-01 1.609976 1.825259 2.103382 2.512912 3.157822 4.298123 7.345629
2026-02-08 1.595208 1.810321 2.088946 2.500765 3.153216 4.319520 7.526572
2026-02-15 1.579714 1.794076 2.072272 2.484623 3.140914 4.323903 7.650127
2026-02-22 1.576597 1.793962 2.077470 2.500775 3.182563 4.438819 8.193835
2026-03-01 1.543325 1.753389 2.026268 2.431300 3.077397 4.246828 7.572003
2026-03-08 1.528900 1.737686 2.009184 2.412773 3.058143 4.231518 7.609361